yield

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The past 50 years have been characterised by falling interest rates, low inflation and low volatility. A superb environment for both bonds and equities. But we may be entering a regime change which could see these conditions reverse.

The acquisition of the $2.8 billion London-based family office Sandaire by Schroders did not come as a shock to some family office principals who say they anticipate further consolidation as financial institutions seek inroads into the $5.9 trillion family office space and family office principals near retirement age.

However, those principals acknowledged that the very wealthiest of families would always want their own financial services managed directly and discreetly inhouse, regardless of mounting business costs and uncertain investment returns.

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

In particular, we believe that conventional bonds will provide neither acceptable returns in good times, nor much protection in a downturn.

The popular interactive Campden Club webinar series returns with its 6th Virtual Fund Manager & Investment Event on 1 December, open virtually for global participants.

Campden Club will host a select group of four funds or direct investments who will present their strategies in the next webinar. To date these have included impact investments, equities, venture capital, private equity, private credit, private debt, real estate, hedge funds, agriculture, emerging markets, technology and more.