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Ruffer LLP

A vaccine: To v or not to v? That is the question
September 10, 2020

Could a vaccine change market leadership? When will enough doses of FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25 million people be distributed in the US? The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

Could a vaccine change market leadership? When will enough doses of FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25 million people be distributed in the US? The superforecasters of the Good Judgement Project believe there is a 93% probability we will have an FDA-approved vaccine in a year, and enough of it to inoculate 25 million people in the US. This is up from just 20% in the dark days of April.

The geopolitical implications of a changing climate
May 7, 2020

The valuation of financial assets is based on expectations of future returns—but what if the next half century is vastly different from the previous one? Environmental changes are affecting companies and countries in a number of ways. Investors need to understand the key environmental trends and grapple with the implications for geopolitics and markets.

The valuation of financial assets is based on expectations of future returns—but what if the next half century is vastly different from the previous one? Environmental changes are affecting companies and countries in a number of ways. Investors need to understand the key environmental trends and grapple with the implications for geopolitics and markets.

How Covid-19 has changed the investment landscape
April 29, 2020

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

This is the first episode of a new series of podcasts, where Ruffer will be exploring the investment universe and sharing their interpretation of what’s going on.

“It’s our view that we are moving through an economic regime change,” MacInnes (pictured) said.

Covid-19 and the dawn of a new market era
April 9, 2020

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

It was the avalanche we have long feared. From record peak to bear market, the S&P fell faster during the ‘corona crash’ than ever before, as the chart below shows.

At peak turmoil, conventional offsets (bonds, gold) proved flaky friends: investors sold what they could, not what they perhaps should. Specialist crash protections allowed Ruffer portfolios to hold their ground.

Jonathan Ruffer on how investors can navigate the coronavirus crisis
April 1, 2020

When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is unhelpful—even worse, it is historic: by the time these words are read, events will have unfolded which make them, as the CD music reviews have it, ‘Of historic interest only’. We are a long way from terra firma; at the time of writing, it’s a case of ‘so far, so good’. If this were a tennis match, all we could say is that we’ve had a decent first set.

Dismantling the deflation machine
March 23, 2020

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

Coronavirus recession—who’s most at risk?
March 12, 2020

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession?

Behind the illusion of stability
February 26, 2020

The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. In 2008, it was leverage in the banks. Today, the equivalent risk is in the asset management industry, where a series of interlocking factors have come together to make markets increasingly ‘avalanche prone’. There is an illusion of stability. Low volatility has lulled many to sleep. We believe this will end badly—and are positioning portfolios to protect our clients from the avalanche.

This is the first of two white papers published by our chief investment officer, Henry Maxey, on the current investment climate and where we see the risks. The second paper, Dismantling the Deflation Machine, will be published in March.

Is the UK at the start of a mini-boom?
February 12, 2020

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

Ronald Reagan ran in 1984 with a famous TV commercial which started with the line ‘It’s morning in America’. This was to signify that the best was yet to come. We think there is a chance, just a chance, that the UK could also be at the start of an exciting period.

Opportunities and pitfalls: The Ruffer guide to family investments in 2020
January 27, 2020

How should global business families of wealth navigate the choppy investment waters in the year ahead? Is a global economic recession looming and what does that mean for family investors? Emma Rutter, investment director at Ruffer LLP, urges diversification in portfolios, says environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria should be a prism to view all investments through and explains why “liquidity will be king”.

How should global business families of wealth navigate the choppy investment waters in the year ahead? Is a global economic recession looming and what does that mean for family investors? Emma Rutter, investment director at Ruffer LLP, urges diversification in portfolios, says environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria should be a prism to view all investments through and explains why “liquidity will be king”.

Where does Ruffer see investment opportunities in 2020?

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