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Ruffer LLP

May 20, 2021

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

There is a lot of spare money around. Central banks have flooded the economy with support and generous government subsidies have filled the gap for millions of individuals. Those who could, saved.

Inflation protection—What’s the right recipe?

April 28, 2021

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to assess the impact inflation could have on portfolios. Most of today’s investors have never seen meaningful inflation in the whole of their professional careers. So, as we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

Jurassic risk and the chomping of the traditional balanced portfolio

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

Evoking memories of the South Sea Bubble… both bad and good

February 18, 2021

We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic.

The chart below shows that it was also a record year for share issuance, surpassing even the heady days of 1999-2000.

Jonthan Ruffer’s investment review of growth and gains

January 21, 2021

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

The 60/40 portfolio: Losing its balance

December 14, 2020

The 60/40 portfolio has served investors well for the past 50 years (1). It has been the allocation of choice for traditional balanced portfolios—60% in equities for the good times, 40% in bonds for the bad (and for the yield).

The past 50 years have been characterised by falling interest rates, low inflation and low volatility. A superb environment for both bonds and equities. But we may be entering a regime change which could see these conditions reverse.

The K is not OK

December 2, 2020

The unique shape of the Covid-19 crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived while others have dived. In caricature, everyone now uses Zoom and Peloton, while offices and gyms were forced to close.

What does the K mean? Online shopping wins, traditional retailing loses. Commercial property such as offices and shops lose, but logistics warehouses thrive. City apartments struggle, suburbs with gardens boom. The digital economy beats everything.

Remind me why you own bonds

November 18, 2020

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

In particular, we believe that conventional bonds will provide neither acceptable returns in good times, nor much protection in a downturn.

You can’t tax your way out of this: Chancellor Sunak will need a Plan B

October 21, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the 20th century.

The numbers are enormous: UK government debt now tops £2 trillion (1). whilst the US owes an eye watering $26 trillion (2). The picture is similar across Europe with many other countries also seeing debt/GDP ratios rising to over 100% (3).

Jonathan Ruffer’s Q3 investment review

October 8, 2020

Whatever one’s outlook, there have been times in 2020 when the markets seemed to echo one’s innermost thoughts, and times when we shout out like Falstaff, that the whole world has gone mad. The bulls and the bears have had their time in the sun, and their time on the dark face of the moon—what follows is a digested diary of our journey through the year 2020 so far.