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Ruffer LLP

Do conventional bonds still deserve a place in portfolios?

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

Jonathan Ruffer’s investment review

April 7, 2022

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Is higher and more volatile inflation here to stay?

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

Is investing for higher inflation a poisoned chalice?

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

Not all inflationistas wear flares: Why the new inflationary era won’t be like the 1970s

December 1, 2021

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Overlay the bottom chart below and you would be forgiven for believing that we are now on the same trajectory as we were 50 years ago. There are parallels but to assume the economy will meet the same inflationary fate would be a grave mistake for investors.

Going, going, gone: Private equity buyers snap up UK companies, but investors don’t care

September 21, 2021

What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

What can they see that we can’t? Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

Private equity bids for UK companies are soaring, while at the same time the UK stock market languishes at valuations well below US peers.

ESG engagement over exclusion: How you can do well by doing good

August 19, 2021

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

The actions taken by governments, companies and individuals in the next decade will be crucial if we are to limit the rise in global temperatures. The option of doing nothing has now passed, not just for the environment, but for companies and investors too.

Ruffer Radio: Inflation—great expectations

August 3, 2021

Inflation is back, but for how long? Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

Inflation is back, but for how long?

Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

Click the image below to play the podcast.

Jonathan Ruffer on assets, quantitative easing and inflation

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

Water scarcity: The other liquidity crisis

May 28, 2021

Water, in many ways, is a proxy for life itself. Civilisations have sprung from fertile river valleys and along the trading routes of the seas. For NASA, when searching for extra-terrestrial life, the guiding principle has been to ‘follow the water’.

What is water scarcity?