risks

As the appetite for venture capital investing increases among family offices, it is important to take a closer look at the origins and structural differences between a family office and venture capital fund to assess their relative strengths and weaknesses in the context of risk in private capital technology investments.

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

While 2021 has started not unlike how much of 2020 played out, with Covid-19 infections continuing to spread and many countries reimplementing lockdown measures, the approval and rollout of various vaccines to combat the coronavirus has been an undeniable game-changer for markets. It's provided a clearer road map for a return to some form of normality, although the path ahead is still likely to remain bumpy, with continued uncertainties in the offing.

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.