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Not all inflationistas wear flares: Why the new inflationary era won’t be like the 1970s

December 1, 2021

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Overlay the bottom chart below and you would be forgiven for believing that we are now on the same trajectory as we were 50 years ago. There are parallels but to assume the economy will meet the same inflationary fate would be a grave mistake for investors.

Jonathan Ruffer on assets, quantitative easing and inflation

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

What does inflation mean for family investors?

July 12, 2021

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

Russell Investments’ 2021 Global Market Outlook—Q3 update: The song remains the same

June 30, 2021

The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

Ruffer on why inflation is the ‘starting gun’ for global volatility

June 17, 2021

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom,” Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in May 2021.

The number of companies raising prices in the United States is at a 35-year high.

“This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”

Private debt—The outlook for 2021: Is the old new again?

May 13, 2021

Providing loans to companies has historically been one of the main components of commercial banking activity and goes back hundreds of years. Today, private debt comes in many forms, but most commonly involves non-bank institutions making loans to private companies based on the cashflows generated by the respective business, or for the acquisition of a hard asset (eg, real estate) or acquiring existing loans on the secondary market.

Providing loans to companies has historically been one of the main components of commercial banking activity and goes back hundreds of years. Today, private debt comes in many forms, but most commonly involves non-bank institutions making loans to private companies based on cashflows generated by the respective business, or for the acquisition of a hard asset (eg, real estate) or acquiring existing loans on the secondary market.

Inheritance Tax: Reliefs, rates and exemptions for families

February 5, 2021

Statistics from the UK government’s tax office show the amount of Inheritance Tax (IHT) families are paying has soared from £2.9 billion ($3.9 billion) in 2011-12 to £5.2 billion ($7.1 billion) in 2019-20—this in part reflects the rise in asset values since 2008, and in particular skyrocketing property prices in London and the south-east of England.

Private markets: Diversifying for the future

December 18, 2020

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

Russell Investments' 2021 Global Market Outlook: The old normal

December 10, 2020

We believe that vaccine prospects are likely to make 2021 a year of global economic recovery. While markets have priced in a fair amount of the good news, more gains seem possible as corporate profits rebound and central banks remain on hold.

With the world in the early post-recession recovery phase of the business cycle, our medium-term outlook for economies and corporate earnings is positive. We believe that 2021 will feature an extended period of low-inflation, low-interest rate growth that favours equities over bonds.