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inflation

Investing in big oil: Going ‘beyond petroleum’

October 27, 2021

The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today, as our chart shows. If you looked back to the early 1980s you would have seen it was more than 20%.

The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today, as our chart shows. If you looked back to the early 1980s you would have seen it was more than 20%.

If you add up all of the listed oil majors (BP, Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron etc) you get a market cap less than 40% of Apple’s $2.5 trillion (1). It looks decidedly like a one way track, reflecting an irreversible change to investor sentiment, indicative of a future no longer powered by fossil fuels.

Jonathan Ruffer on navigating investment risks and market crises

October 15, 2021

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

Russell Investments’ 2021 Global Market Outlook—Q4 update: Growing pains

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

Worried about inflation? Why not?

October 1, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

Russell Investments’ Q2 2021 Equity Manager Report: Volatility providing opportunities for skilled managers

August 10, 2021

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

Jonathan Ruffer on assets, quantitative easing and inflation

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

Preparing for generational wealth transfer post-Covid-19

July 7, 2021

Every industry has seen sharp changes over the last year and a half due to the pandemic, but the wealth sector has seen a major shift with the generational wealth transfer timeline shortening significantly.

What geopolitical instability, digital revolution, changing state policies and ESG means for long-term investors

July 1, 2021

Four interlinked areas deserve the attention of long-term investors: greater geopolitical instability; the digital revolution; domestic political changes in the advanced economies; and the rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations.

The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing tectonic shifts that are changing the world order.

Russell Investments’ 2021 Global Market Outlook—Q3 update: The song remains the same

June 30, 2021

The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

Ruffer on why inflation is the ‘starting gun’ for global volatility

June 17, 2021

“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the US economy will likely boom,” Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said in May 2021.

The number of companies raising prices in the United States is at a 35-year high.

“This boom could easily run into 2023 because all the spending could extend well into 2023.”