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December 9, 2022

Ruffer investment director Duncan MacInnes delves into the truth and fiction of the bull market.

In the classic Christmas film Miracle on 34th Street, Kris Kringle is on trial for claiming to be the real Santa Claus. His defence lawyer says, “If this court finds that there is no Santa, I ask the court to judge which is worse: a lie that draws a smile or a truth that draws a tear.”

Doesn’t that feel like markets recently?

November 4, 2022

Cash is trash. Cash is a melting ice cube. Going to cash is giving up... Ruffer investment director Duncan MacInnes says there's still life in the folding stuff yet!

Cash is trash. Cash is a melting ice cube. Going to cash is giving up.

Ruffer currently has the highest weighting to cash or cash-like assets in our history. We are concerned that liquidity is the new leverage and that a degradation of liquidity conditions poses an imminent danger to investor portfolios. 

So why, unlike other investment managers, are we comfortable owning cash today?

September 22, 2022

On the heels of Campden Wealth's Forum in Bermuda this past summer, Campden FB caught up with long-time member Edward Allanby. Having spent 20 years living in and welcoming family offices to Bermuda, Edward guides us through the many reasons why the North Atlantic island is the place to be...

There are myriad reasons to move to Bermuda - an archipelago of 181 islands totalling 21 square miles and surrounded by pink sand beaches and palm trees, the island is rich in culture, local and international cuisines and natural beauty, with a sub-tropical climate and temperatures that rarely drop below 55°F or exceed 90°F. The island offers one of the highest standards of living in the world, one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, a top-tier healthcare system and access to excellent schools.

June 10, 2022

Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril. Today, they seem powerless to control inflation, says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Steve Russell.

Who’d be a central banker today? Once, they were the masters of the universe, bravely slaying the dragon of inflation and slashing interest rates to save the economy in times of peril.

Today, they seem powerless to control inflation. Fearful of raising interest rates too far, they issue hollow calls for wage restraint. No wonder Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, admitted to MPs recently that “It’s a very, very difficult place for us to be in.”

May 20, 2022

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be, says Ruffer LLP’s Duncan MacInnes.

In the Back To The Future trilogy, the bad guy is a bully called Biff Tannen.

The megalomaniac mogul amassed his wealth because his older self travelled back in time to give his younger self the Grays Sports Almanac, a compilation of every sports result from 1950 to 2000. So Biff was able to earn a spectacular fortune from sports betting.

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be.

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

October 1, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

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