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Henry Maxey

November 14, 2022

Has the sell-off in long-dated bonds presented an opportunity to add risk to portfolios, asks Ruffer’s Jasmine Yeo?

Market sell-offs can provide the chance to buy quality assets at attractive valuations. Of course, if you can preserve capital as prices fall, then you’ll be better placed to take advantage of any opportunities that arise.

But buying equities isn’t the only way to dial up risk in portfolios today.

We see the recent falls at the long end of the US bond market as an opportunity worth grabbing.

Could rising interest rates trigger a stampede out of risky assets?

October 17, 2022

It may be time for a bit of grin and bear it before we can once again look for reasons to be cheerful, says Steve Russell, investment director at Ruffer LLP.

Warning: the following contains explicit language of a bearish nature. Readers of a more nervous disposition may want to look away now…

Even after three consecutive quarters of losses in both equities and bonds, investors may not be out of the woods. So far, it has been a painful, but orderly repricing of risky assets. Now, we fear something worse - a liquidation.

Taking back control? Demise of the deflation machine

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

Is higher and more volatile inflation here to stay?

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

Is investing for higher inflation a poisoned chalice?

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

Jurassic risk and the chomping of the traditional balanced portfolio

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

Dismantling the deflation machine

March 23, 2020

Seeking to escape the inflation of the 1970s, policymakers have inadvertently engineered an equally powerful deflation machine. Over the past 30 years, this has been mightily reinforced by the transformation of China’s economy and the impact of technology.

Behind the illusion of stability

February 26, 2020

The epicentre of risk in the financial system has moved. In 2008, it was leverage in the banks. Today, the equivalent risk is in the asset management industry, where a series of interlocking factors have come together to make markets increasingly ‘avalanche prone’. There is an illusion of stability. Low volatility has lulled many to sleep. We believe this will end badly—and are positioning portfolios to protect our clients from the avalanche.

This is the first of two white papers published by our chief investment officer, Henry Maxey, on the current investment climate and where we see the risks. The second paper, Dismantling the Deflation Machine, will be published in March.