downturn

The global economic reopening remains on track as Covid-19 vaccination rates climb. While rising inflation has become a concern, the spike in prices looks transitory so far. Ultimately, we still like the pandemic recovery trade that favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks. 

Key market themes

February saw concerns over coronavirus truly go global, as cases emerged across Europe and the US, shattering the illusion that this was an infection limited to China.

Whilst public safety and containment of the outbreak must clearly be the primary concern, for financial markets the key question is will the virus cause a recession?

European family business titans Fiat Chrysler and LVMH look to consolidate their dominance in their automaking and luxury goods markets in an uncertain world by eyeing multi-billion dollar mergers.

The Italian Agnelli family, which controls Fiat Chrysler through its holding company Exor, was expected to approve the proposed $48 billion union with Peugeot-owner PSA, itself 12.2% owned by the French Peugeot family.

More than half of the world’s leading family office principals say they expect a market downturn to start in 2020 and are considering how to safeguard against potential losses and capitalise on new opportunities.

Nearly half (45%) of principals surveyed said they were re-aligning their investment strategy to manage risk or take advantage of opportunistic events (42%). Another two-fifths (42%) said they were increasing their cash reserves, while a fifth (22%) are reducing leverage exposure within their investments.