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inflation

January 12, 2022

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

December 20, 2021

The Dhawan family of India is taking their company SSF Plastics to the next level in family business evolution through initiatives in professionalisation, diversification, sustainability and engaging the next generation.

The Dhawan family of India is taking their company SSF Plastics to the next level in family business evolution through initiatives in professionalisation, diversification, sustainability and engaging the next generation.

Saurabh Dhawan (pictured), the second generation family member leading business development, says the Mumbai-headquartered, self-described one-stop solution provider for all rigid plastic packaging needs has also been venturing into multiple startups, with next-gens at the helm.

December 1, 2021

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Overlay the bottom chart below and you would be forgiven for believing that we are now on the same trajectory as we were 50 years ago. There are parallels but to assume the economy will meet the same inflationary fate would be a grave mistake for investors.

November 9, 2021

Agreeing on and abiding by a family constitution serves as the backbone for success for the leading Indian integrated logistics service provider V-Trans, owned and operated by the second-generation Shah family.

Agreeing on and abiding by a family constitution serves as the backbone for success for the leading Indian integrated logistics service provider V-Trans, owned and operated by the second-generation Shah family.

Mahendra Shah (pictured), group managing director and chief executive of V-Trans India Ltd, paid tribute to his late father and uncle as “the true entrepreneurs” who laid the foundation of the group based on ethics and values in 1958.

October 26, 2021

The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today, as our chart shows. If you looked back to the early 1980s you would have seen it was more than 20%.

The energy sector has fallen from 16% of the S&P 500 just 13 years ago, to below 3% as of today, as our chart shows. If you looked back to the early 1980s you would have seen it was more than 20%.

If you add up all of the listed oil majors (BP, Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron etc) you get a market cap less than 40% of Apple’s $2.5 trillion (1). It looks decidedly like a one way track, reflecting an irreversible change to investor sentiment, indicative of a future no longer powered by fossil fuels.

October 14, 2021

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

October 1, 2021

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

The Covid-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening.

Amid this backdrop, our outlook favours equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

September 30, 2021

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

In the world of investment, there are few things everyone can agree on. You’re either a bull or a bear, a dove or a hawk, for or against.

If there’s one thing investors do know for sure—it’s that bonds and equities can be used in combination to achieve a ‘balanced portfolio’.

At the simplest level, this means building portfolios with some equities for the good times, and bonds for the bad. Typically, in a 60/40 split.

August 10, 2021

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

Is the global economy’s uneven recovery leading to more opportunities for equity managers? The answer: Yes, according to our latest quarterly report on equity managers.

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